China’s afghan odyssey: from war to prosperity in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan

Abstract

Following the Taliban’s ascension to power, the Afghan government expresses a keen interest in affiliating with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The prospective inclusion of Afghanistan in the BRI holds the promise of a profound impact on the Afghan economy, security dynamics, and overall stability. Concurrently, such an association can advance Beijing’s strategic interests within its domestic sphere and the broader regional context. Within the intricate geopolitical milieu of Afghanistan, characterized by ongoing legitimacy concerns, China’s escalating engagement assumes paramount importance, bearing substantial consequences for both Afghanistan and Beijing. This paper examines China’s investment and aid strategies in Afghanistan pre- and post-Taliban ascension to power in 2021. Additionally, it delves into the identification and analysis of the pivotal land transport network in Afghanistan, particularly in the context of its potential integration with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and participation in the BRI, assessing the consequential advantages thereof. Furthermore, it scrutinizes the dynamic diplomatic and security relations between China and Afghanistan, with a focus on safeguarding China’s strategic assets in the region. The authors utilize qualitative research, incorporating primary and secondary data from government documents, official speeches, interviews with experts, and various research works. The study concludes that China has increased investments in Taliban-led Afghanistan, confident that Afghanistan’s participation in BRI could reshape its economy, strengthen Beijing’s strategic position in minerals and energy, and considerably improve Afghanistan’s security environment. The research provides valuable insights for policy debates and international efforts to promote stability and long-term growth in a war-torn nation.