Situating Afghanistan in China's GDI-BRI matrix: Taliban rule, Chinese ambitions, and the regeography of development

Abstract

This article critically analyses China's aid and investment strategies in Afghanistan under the Republican government (2004 to 2021) and the Taliban regime (2021 to 2024). It situates China's growing economic engagement with the Taliban within the broader context of the Global Development Initiative (GDI), launched shortly after the takeover of Kabul. Further, it explores potential pathways for Afghanistan's integration into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the strategic benefits China may accrue. This research uses discourse analysis and draws on primary and secondary sources, including official documents, academic literature, semi-structured interviews (HUMINT), and open-source materials (OSINT). Contrary to prevailing scholarly consensus, the findings suggest that Beijing demonstrates greater confidence in investing under the Taliban than during the previous regime. This shift is driven by China's pragmatic approach, expanding sectoral presence, and a perceived improvement in security, which may enable deeper BRI integration and mutual economic gains.