Low carbon transition dynamics for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states

Abstract

There is a global need to decarbonize energy systems and infrastructure to achieve carbon neutrality, also known as “net-zero” status, by 2050. For countries known as “hydrocarbon dependent rentier states” (HDRSs), the challenge is twofold: moving away from hydrocarbons as the main source of domestic energy supply and moving away from the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) as the main contributor to national income. This paper draws on expert interviews and combines the multi-level perspective and political economy frameworks in examining the dynamics of sustainability transition in the rentier states. In the absence of documented precedents, this paper presents the results of interviews with experts in which the options for transitioning to a net-zero path are explored, focusing on a case study of Qatar. Multi-level perspective, rentier state, and resource curse theories were used as an analytical lens to assess how this knowledge can inform a transition agenda where hydrocarbons dominate current economic and socio-technical systems. This study identified eighteen factors that could have a significant influence on resistance or reversal of transition pathways in HDRS. The research found that landscape or exogenous factors play a major role in small, hydrocarbon-dependent economies because they are dependent on the export market and vulnerable to global commodity price cycles. Steady decline in demand, price volatility, cheaper alternative energy sources and ambitious net-zero plans are some of the main landscape (exogenous) factors that are likely to be influential in creating potential pressure on the regime for low carbon transition in rentier states. However, the results also reveal that the states resist major changes and hold on to the existing regime to avoid major distributional impact on their economy and society at large.