Investigating the potential of low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: sociotechnical transition in Qatar

Abstract

Climate change and low-carbon ambitions globally are exerting pressure on countries of all typologies to move away from fossil fuel (hydrocarbon) use. This study sought to explore how hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states (HDRSs) can undertake a low-carbon transition, while ensuring the continued delivery of goods and services to citizens. The study used the Delphi method to explore how hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states could transition to low-carbon economies, focusing on the state of Qatar. Results were considered using the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework to understand the characteristics of the required socio-technical transitions. Landscape factors which are influencing decarbonization pathway options for HDRSs include global climate change, peer pressure from international organizations, changing consumer preferences, and technological developments. Key attributes of a successful transition appear to be the presence of a strong political will, sustained financial support, long-term strategic policies, and a robust institutional framework with effective governance, monitoring, and evaluation to provide incentives and constraints that can shape the desired socio-technical transition pathway. Through implementing forward-looking policies, HDRSs can avoid future economic costs and distributive impacts resulting from climate policies internationally. These findings have immediate implications for policymakers, bureaucrats, and politicians in HDRSs by providing an evidence base for low-carbon transition leadership.