Narrative futures of a low carbon transition for hydrocarbon rentier states: case of Qatar

Abstract

The beginning of the post-fossil fuel era is evident in trends such as fossil fuel divestment, cheaper alternative energy sources, and disruptive technologies that are enabling responsive and reliable alternative energy systems. In this global low-carbon transition, states (countries) that are dependent on hydrocarbon revenues confront an uncertain future, requiring urgent actions to reduce their economic and societal dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. It is well known that choices made will have significant impacts on wealth and prosperity. Unfortunately, desirable transition pathways remain unclear and the benefits ill-defined. Addressing this critical gap in knowledge, this paper frames the construct of a ‘low-carbon transition’ for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states, presenting 16 decision-support scenarios across three key categories of industrial, economic and energy/ environmental futures. The study used backcasting methods in four creative-narrative scenario workshops focusing on Qatar, engaging with a diverse group of senior technology and policy professionals. The authors discuss the findings in relation to tensions, contradictions and dominant narratives about a low carbon future. The utility of these narratives is concluded by providing a systematic approach for public and private sector leaders to appreciate and plan for a low carbon transition in hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states. The findings provide a useful framing for the future and foresight practitioners working in a similar cultural context.