The 7th victor de mello goa lecture: climate resilient design of embankment using geocomposites

Abstract

Climate change is driving non-stationary rainfall patterns, intensifying both the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, which pose significant risks to earthen embankments. Traditional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, based on stationary climate assumptions, often underestimate future hydrological loads. This study investigates the stability of embankments with and without geocomposite drainage layers under both stationary and non-stationary IDF scenarios, focusing on return periods of 10, 30, 50, and 100 years. Bengaluru, India, a monsoon-affected urban region, serves as the case study, with future rainfall projections derived from the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario to represent high-emission pathways. Numerical simulations reveal that unreinforced embankments under non-stationary conditions experience rapid pore-water pressure accumulation and a significant drop in Factor of Safety (FOS), reaching critical saturation in as little as 12 hours for 50-year return events. In contrast, geocomposite-reinforced embankments exhibit improved drainage, delayed saturation, and maintain FOS above 1.5 under stationary scenarios, and up to 18 hours of stability in the 100-year non-stationary case.