Pandemic Beyond Lockdown in India

Abstract

The aim of this study is two-fold. First, it evaluates the scorecard of the COVID-19 pandemic in India and its major states during the last four phases of nationwide lockdowns and unlocks. Second, it examines the changing structure of the health status under this pandemic in terms of increasing COVID-19 cases. To this end, we have employed the prevalence rate, recovery rate, case fatality rate, doubling rate, and sample test multiple as methodologies using the daily data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (India) and WHO. The analysis reveals that there is a huge variation in the prevalence rate, fatality rate, testing rate, and doubling rates across the states in India. From the end of the fourth lockdown (May 31, 2020) to the end of the fourth unlock (unlock 4.0–September 30, 2020), the prevalence rate has increased from 538 per million to 19185 per million during this period. The average case fatality rate in India was 2.2 per cent at the beginning of the first lockdown and increased to 3 per cent during the fourth lockdown. However, owing to the phase-wise unlocks, case fatality rate has reversed to 1.6 per cent till the end of unlock 4.0. On average, most of the states moved to a slower doubling rate of COVID-19 cases during the unlock periods. This study emphasises the need for rapid identification, to find isolation, quick test, and treat cases of COVID-19, including providing optimal care for its severity in patients, especially the elderly, to ensure these recent declining trends continue.