Department of Economics and Finance

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Beyond Growth: Does Tourism Promote Human Development in India? Evidence from Time Series Analysis
(Korea Science, 2020) Giri, Arun Kumar
The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.
The composition of public expenditure and economic growth in India: Evidence from auto regressive distributed lag approach
(JER, 2016-08) Giri, Arun Kumar; Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi
The present study examines the role of various components of pub- lic expenditures on economic growth in India during the period from 1980 to 2013. The study used ARDL approach to examine the long run and the short run dynamic relationship. The VECM based Granger causality test is utilized to check the direction of causality. The results reveal that there exists a long run cointegrat- ing relationship between economic growth, developmental expen- diture, fiscal deficit and gross private investment. The ARDL es- timates show significant positive long run impact of development expenditure on economic growth. However, the non development expenditure and revenue expenditure reveal insignificant impact on economic growth. The causality test estimates indicate short and long run unidirectional causality running from development expen- diture and fiscal deficit to economic growth in India
Does female human capital contribute to economic growth in India?: an empirical investigation
(Emerald, 2017-11) Giri, Arun Kumar
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of female human capital on economic growth in the Indian economy during 1970-2014.
Dynamic linkages between trade, growth, inequality, and poverty in emerging countries: An application of panel ARDL approach
(Taylor & Francis, 2023-07) Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi
With the transition from Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the concept of development has shifted from development to inclusive development. This motivates authors to include not only growth and inequality but also poverty, which will represent our concept of inclusive development. The literature on trade and its impact on inequality and poverty is ambiguous and heterogeneous, reflecting the need for more empirical analyses to enable effective policy targeting and implementation. The study examines the dynamic linkages between trade and the GIP triangle (economic growth, poverty, and inequality) in 18 emerging countries from 1991 to 2020. As a contribution to the existing literature, the study emphasizes direct and indirect linkages between trade and the GIP triangle. Using the panel ARDL approach for panel data, the study finds that trade promotes growth. Trade also helps in deteriorating income inequality, while it is not a factor of poverty eradication in emerging economies. The study recommends that to maximize the effectiveness of trade policies; they must be complementary and implemented in tandem with trade reforms
Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and Indian Stock Price: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
(AESS, 2015) Giri, Arun Kumar
he purpose of the present study is to examine the dynamic long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using monthly data from April 2004 to July 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to testthe short and long run causality and Variance Decomposition (VDC) is also used to explore how much the forecast error variance of a conditional stock market volatility is explained by the innovations to each explanatory conditional macroeconomic variables. The results confirm a long run co-integrating relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that the Index of Industrial Production, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively, whereas, gold price influences the stock price negatively. The VECM result indicates that only long run causality running from all the variables used in the study to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks.
Establishing the relationship between population aging and health care expenditure in India
(Emerald, 2022-02) Giri, Arun Kumar; Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi; Arora, Rahul
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the role of population aging in determining the health care expenditure (HCE) in India over the period 1981 to 2018.
Examining the tourism-induced environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for India
(Springer, 2023-12) Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi; Giri, Arun Kumar
This paper revisits the debate on the possible impact of tourism sector development on carbon emissions using annual time series data from 1980 to 2019. The present study is a pioneering attempt to estimate the threshold point for tourism-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for India. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributive lag model and block-exogeneity Granger non-causality test have been employed. The empirical results confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship between tourist sector development, real GDP per capita, energy consumption, urbanization and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in India. The results also indicate a positive and significant association between the tourism sector, economic growth, and carbon emissions in the long run and support the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis in India. Further, the study finds a long-run and short-run causal nexus between the variables. The findings also emphasize the need to rely less on the use of fossil fuels and instead transition to green energy production in the tourism industry. Given the size of the tourism industry in India, such practices would make a meaningful contribution to inclusive and sustainable development in the country.
Financial development and economic growth: empirical evidence from India
(Emerald, 2015-08) Giri, Arun Kumar
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in India using annual data from 1982 to 2012.
Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence
(MDPI, 2015) Giri, Arun Kumar
The study aims at examining how fiscal deficits affect the performance of the stock market in India by using annual data from 1988–2012. The study makes use of Ng-Perron unit root tests to check the non-stationarity property of the series; the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for testing both short and long run dynamic relationships. The variance decomposition (VDC) is used to predict the exogenous shocks of the variables. The findings of the bounds test reveal that the estimated equation and the series are co-integrated. The ARDL results suggest a long run negative relationship exists between budget deficit and stock prices and do not show any significant relationship in the short run. The VECM result shows that fiscal deficits influence the stock price only in the short run. The results of the Variance Decomposition show that stock price movement in the long run is mostly explained by shocks of fiscal deficits. The study implies that the government must adopt appropriate macroeconomic policies to reduce budget deficit, which will result in stock market growth and in turn will lead to the financial development of the country.
Foreign aid, macroeconomic policies and economic growth nexus in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach
(2016) Giri, Arun Kumar; Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of foreign aid on economic growth in Indian economy using annual data from 1970 to 2014. The cointegration test confirms a long run relationship between real GDP per capita and foreign aid for India. The study finds a positive and significant impact of foreign aid on economic growth in India both in long run and in short run. Our results provide strong evidence that effectiveness of foreign aid on economic growth is contingent on macroeconomic policy environment in India. The VECM results confirm short-run and long run unidirectional causality running from foreign aid, government expenditure and trade openness to economic growth in India. Further, the results of the variance decomposition approach indicate that economic growth in India mostly explained by foreign aid. Further, the impulse response function result indicates that there is positive response in economic growth due to shock stemming in foreign aid. The findings and the results are useful guidelines for major stakeholders, including donors and the government of recipient countries for designing framework for aid effectiveness
Gold price and exchange rate in pre and during Covid-19 period in India: Modelling dependence using copulas
(Elsevier, 2022-12) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the dynamic relationship between the gold price and the exchange rate in pre- and during Covid-19 pandemic in India. We consider the periods of about equal length for both the pre- and during Covid-19 by considering the data from January 1, 2019 till February 28, 2021. The descriptive analysis shows a significant increase in the dynamics of gold price and exchange rate after mid-March 2020. The results derived from the ARDL approach show a positive and significant relationship between the gold price and exchange rate both in the long and short run. We have selected the best fitted bivariate copula to study the joint distribution of the gold price and the exchange rate. Using the copula model, we examine the relationship between the gold price and exchange rate in a bivariate framework. We have studied the dependence between them including the tail dependencies using the fitted copula. Our findings reveal that the gold price and exchange rate are significantly correlated for the entire study period, and it also reveals that there is no tail dependence. However, the mutual association between the variables is not confirmed in the considered Covid-19 period.
The impact of financial development, economic growth and energy consumption on environmental degradation: Evidence from India
(Emerald, 2015-08) Giri, Arun Kumar; Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi
he purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of financial development, economic growth and energy consumption on environment degradation for Indian economy by using the time series data for the period 1971-2011
The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis
(De Gruyter, 2017-06) Giri, Arun Kumar
The purpose of the present study is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using annual data from 1979 to 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to test the short and long run causality and variance decomposition is used to predict long run exogenous shocks of the variables. The results confirm a long run relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that Economic growth, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively. However, crude oil price influences the stock price negatively. This implies that the increase in oil price induces inflationary expectation in the mind of investors and hence stock prices are adversely affected. The VECM result indicates that short run and long run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and FDI to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks. The Government can take steps to control the crude oil price in India and Investors’ confidence has to be gained by boosting the economic growth of the economy through appropriate policy tools.
Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy
(Elsevier, 2024-06) Krishna, M.
Many economies abundant in natural resources often leverage the rents from these resources as collateral for borrowing during periods of economic boom, intending to repay debts during periods of windfall. However, this practice can cultivate irresponsible borrowing tendencies, potentially leading to debt trap scenarios when global resource prices decline. Thus, our study delves into the interaction between public debt (PD) and total natural resource rents (TNR), examining both aggregate and disaggregate forms, with a specific focus on India spanning from 1980-81 to 2021–22. Our aggregate analysis reveals that PD exhibits heightened responsiveness to negative shocks in TNR compared to positive shocks, indicating an asymmetric impact of TNR on PD within the Indian context. Additionally, disaggregate analysis uncovers that both positive and negative shocks in coal rents (CR), natural gas rents (NGR), and forest rents (FR) significantly and adversely affect PD. Furthermore, a positive shock in mineral rents (MR) demonstrates a negative and significant impact on PD, while a negative shock in MR yields a positive but insignificant impact on PD. Overall, barring oil rents (OR), other forms of resource rents such as CR, NGR, FR, and MR showcase asymmetric and negative effects on PD. These findings underscore the importance of prudent institutional behavior and sound economic policies in overseeing and managing debt sustainability in resource-rich economies.
The relationship between financial development indicators and human development in India
(Emerald, 2014-11) Giri, Arun Kumar
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development indicators and human development in India using annual data from 1980-2012.
The Role of Globalization and Institutional Quality on Finance- Growth Nexus:Empirical Evidences from India
(TA Pai Management Institute, 2016) Giri, Arun Kumar
The present study explores the impact of globalization and institutional quality on financegrowth nexus within the multivariate framework using time series data over the period 1982-2014. The stationary properties of the variables are checked by employing Saikkonen and Lütkepohl (2002) unit root test. The long run relationship is investigated by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration and error correction method (ECM) is used to examine the short run dynamics among the variables. The empirical results of long run estimates of ARDL suggest that financial development and Globalization contributes to economic growth. These findings are supported by short run estimates. It is also found that institutional Quality does affect economic growth positively; this is in support of sustainable growth. The findings of VECM based causality suggest that there is unidirectional causality running from financial development and globalization to economic growth. It is also found that the unidirectional causality is running from coefficient of institutional quality to economic growth .The results of variance decomposition suggest that the broad money supply plays the most important role to define economic growth in India.
Unraveling the role of green innovation, renewable resources, and urban concentration on green and sustainable growth in India
(Emerald, 2025-06) Giri, Arun Kumar
This study uses econometric methods robust to unit root analysis, such as ADF and DF-GLS, and the ARDL bounds test approach to analyze the long-run and short-run relationship between the selected time-series variables for India from 1993 to 2021. Further, diagnostic inspection like the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test and the Breusch–Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test to determine whether heteroskedasticity and serial correlation exist in the data. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ were applied to assess the stability of the model.