Department of Economics and Finance
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Item What drives public debt in SAARC countries? An empirical assessment(Emerald, 2023-12) Krishna, M.This study aims to explore the determinants of public debt in selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries for 19 years, from 2001 to 2019.Item The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth and public debt: an analysis of India and the global economy(Emerald, 2022-03) Krishna, M.The study attempts to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth and public debt of the Indian economy. The authors also attempt to make quarterly projections of economic growth and external debt (ED) for the next five years. The objective is to understand how much time the economy takes to recover and at what pace. Consequently, this study elucidates the composition of debt after the crisis in the next five years.Item Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy(Elsevier, 2024-06) Krishna, M.Many economies abundant in natural resources often leverage the rents from these resources as collateral for borrowing during periods of economic boom, intending to repay debts during periods of windfall. However, this practice can cultivate irresponsible borrowing tendencies, potentially leading to debt trap scenarios when global resource prices decline. Thus, our study delves into the interaction between public debt (PD) and total natural resource rents (TNR), examining both aggregate and disaggregate forms, with a specific focus on India spanning from 1980-81 to 2021–22. Our aggregate analysis reveals that PD exhibits heightened responsiveness to negative shocks in TNR compared to positive shocks, indicating an asymmetric impact of TNR on PD within the Indian context. Additionally, disaggregate analysis uncovers that both positive and negative shocks in coal rents (CR), natural gas rents (NGR), and forest rents (FR) significantly and adversely affect PD. Furthermore, a positive shock in mineral rents (MR) demonstrates a negative and significant impact on PD, while a negative shock in MR yields a positive but insignificant impact on PD. Overall, barring oil rents (OR), other forms of resource rents such as CR, NGR, FR, and MR showcase asymmetric and negative effects on PD. These findings underscore the importance of prudent institutional behavior and sound economic policies in overseeing and managing debt sustainability in resource-rich economies.Item Revisiting the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from India(Economic annals, 2021) Krishna, M.The main purpose of this study is to examine the debt-growth nexus in India over the period 1984-2019 using Bayer-Hanck and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration techniques. The findings of both techniques suggest the existence of a negative relationship between public debt and economic growth in the long run. The results also confirm the significant negative relationship between foreign exchange reserves and economic growth. Interestingly, the test results confirm the unidirectional causality running from public debt to economic growth in the case of India. From a policy perspective, reducing public debt is imperative to achieve long-term sustainable growth. Efforts should be made to circumvent the burden of burgeoning interest liabilities by generating a primary surplus, which will facilitate debt servicing and timely repayment of debt.Item The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth and public debt: an analysis of India and the global economy(Emerald, 2022-03) Krishna, M.The study attempts to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth and public debt of the Indian economy. The authors also attempt to make quarterly projections of economic growth and external debt (ED) for the next five years. The objective is to understand how much time the economy takes to recover and at what pace. Consequently, this study elucidates the composition of debt after the crisis in the next five years.Item Does Economic Development Affect Public Debt Accumulation ? Empirical Evidence from India(AMC, 2022-04) Krishna, M.The main aim of this paper was to explore various public debt determinants in India using structural equation modeling (SEM). This study is based on secondary data, starting from 1985 – 2018. The study was partially confirmatory and partially exploratory as it also inspected the interaction between economic development and public debt. The findings suggested that, among various macroeconomic variables, debt servicing, inflation, and military expenditure are the key determinants of debt in India. Moreover, as expected, economic development has a negative relation with public debt, suggesting that public debt accumulation tends to decrease with the progress in economic development. It is acknowledged that the improvement in socioeconomic conditions is likely to enhance the overall welfare of the people and thereby create more productive resources in the economy. Therefore, from a policy perspective, we should zero in on internal and debt-related factors.