Department of Economics and Finance
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Item Ajitava Raychauduri, Prabir De and Suranjan Gupta (Eds.), World Trade and India: Multilateralism, Progress and Policy Response(Sage, 2021-09) Arora, RahulToday, the entire world is witnessing a tough time because of the deadly coronavirus spread. It has adversely impacted almost all aspects of human lives and hit the world economy since last year. The pandemic has also hit the international trading system which is already facing many challenges. As per the latest report on trade trends by UNCTAD (2021), the last decade has witnessed declining dependence, calculated by the ratio of the value of world trade flows to the world output including goods and services, on international trade since the year 2009. This ratio was 30% in the year 2008, and it is expected that this ratio will settle at 25% by the end of the year 2020. The last decade has witnessed changes in many economic phenomena such as rising share of trade in intermediate goods and services, the emergence of technology as a major factor of production, and asymmetry in its intensity, which pose severe challenges to the countries involved in international trade indirectly or directly. Losing faith in the WTO by its member countries, the rising level of protection, unilateralism, and emerging regionalism are few such challenges. These challenges gave birth to many complexities that compelled trade economists to think from a different perspective and formulate trade policy in such a way that it satisfies the demand of all the stakeholders. Before devising any solution, understanding all these complexities and channels of their potential impact is very much necessary. This is where World Trade and India: Multilateralism, Progress and Policy Response, a book edited by Ajitava Raychaudhuri, Prabir De, and Suranjan Gupta, comes into play and provides the required knowledge. The book offers fussy insights on various international trade issues of the present-day world, challenges associated with those issues, and the steps taken at the country level. Focusing particularly on the Indian economy, the book covers almost all the aspects related to India’s progress in new trade issues and its policy responses and provides few potential solutions.Item Quantification of sectoral impact of COVID-19 on Indian economy: an application of economy-wide accounting framework(Emerald, 2024-11) Arora, RahulCOVID-19 has affected the economies adversely from all sides. The sudden halt in production has impacted both the supply and demand sides. It calls for analysis to quantify the impact of the reduction in economic activity on the economy-wide variables so that appropriate steps can be taken. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of various sectors of the Indian economy to this dual shock.Item The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth and public debt: an analysis of India and the global economy(Emerald, 2022-03) Krishna, M.The study attempts to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth and public debt of the Indian economy. The authors also attempt to make quarterly projections of economic growth and external debt (ED) for the next five years. The objective is to understand how much time the economy takes to recover and at what pace. Consequently, this study elucidates the composition of debt after the crisis in the next five years.Item Sector wise nonlinear causality between stock market volatility and COVID 19 pandemic: Evidence from India(Asian Economics Letters, 2021) Bal, Debi PrasadThis paper examines the linear and nonlinear relationship between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and sectoral stock market volatility in India. The linear Granger causality test reveals bidirectional causality. Further, we observe that bidirectional nonlinear Granger causality exists between stock market volatility and COVID-19. This implies that the historical and lagged information can have a significant role in predicting COVID-19 cases and the stock market.Item Is Public Debt Sustainable in Indian States? An Empirical Insight(Springer, 2024-07) Bal, Debi PrasadThis paper measures the public debt sustainability of twenty-eight Indian states during 2012–2013 and 2020–2021, including the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study uses Domar’s stability test and panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model in a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by segregating the Indian states into three regions. The Domar’s stability conditions find that there is no violation throughout all the regions of India. The major findings from the PVAR result show that the response of public debt to the gross state-domestic production ratio and the gross primary deficit is negative due to the positive shock of the level of economic growth for the southeastern region. On the other hand, we observed a positive response to public debt for the northwest and northeast regions due to the shock of economic growth. Our findings suggest that while the public debt is sustainable in the southeast region, it is unsustainable in the northwest and northeast regions. The findings emphasize various steps and initiatives of state governments toward fiscal discipline for public sustainability in the long run.Item Hazardous Health Impact of Virtual Education during COVID-19(Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 2021) Debata, ByomakeshThe rapid spread of COVID-19 compelled the infected nations to close down their educational institutions to check the rigor of spread. In such context, to provide uninterrupted education to the students, virtual education through internet was widely adopted. This paper throws a light on how the students engaged in virtual education are exposed to various unexpected health perils due to the use of internet and smartphones. Moreover, this paper suggests taking a holistic approach through the introduction of “Yoga” in the course curriculum to avoid the unexpected health hazards.Item COVID-19 pandemic sentiment and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market(Emerald, 2021-11) Debata, ByomakeshThis study uses nonlinear causality and wavelet coherence techniques to analyze the sentiment-returns nexus. The analysis is conducted on the full sample period from January to December 2020 and further extended to two subperiods from January to June and July to December to investigate whether the associations between sentiment and market returns persist even several months after the outbreakItem Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Investor Attention in Global Stock Markets: An Empirical Assessment(Sage, 2022-12) Debata, ByomakeshUsing the data from 50 global stock markets, this article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on investor attention. Using Google search volume as a proxy for country-specific and worldwide investor attention, this article provides initial evidence on the relationship between the spread of the pandemic and investor attention. Our results suggest that the increasing number of daily deaths and confirmed cases significantly negatively impact investor attention. Results are robust to the country characteristics like the nature of the financial system, financial stability and investor attention risk pricing nature. Our results indicate a positive and significant impact of government responses for restoring investor attention in the market.Item Sectoral Nonlinear Causality Between Stock Market Volatility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From India(Asian Economics Letters, 2021) Bal, Debi PrasadThis paper examines the linear and nonlinear relationship between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and sectoral stock market volatility in India. The linear Granger causality test reveals bidirectional causality. Further, we observe that bidirectional nonlinear Granger causality exists between stock market volatility and COVID-19. This implies that the historical and lagged information can have a significant role in predicting COVID-19 cases and the stock market.Item Characteristics of 2020 stock market crash: The COVID-19 induced extreme event(AIP, 2021-04) Bal, Debi PrasadA sudden fall of stock prices happens during a pandemic due to the panic sell-off by the investors. Such a sell-off may continue for more than a day, leading to a significant crash in the stock price or, more specifically, an extreme event (EE). In this paper, Hilbert–Huang transformation and a structural break analysis (SBA) have been applied to identify and characterize an EE in the stock market due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Hilbert spectrum shows a maximum energy concentration at the time of an EE, and hence, it is useful to identify such an event. The EE’s significant energy concentration is more than four times the standard deviation above the mean energy of the normal fluctuation of stock prices. A statistical significance test for the intrinsic mode functions is applied, and the test found that the signal is not noisy. The degree of nonstationarity test shows that the indices and stock prices are nonstationary. We identify the time of influence of the EE on the stock price by using SBA. Furthermore, we have identified the time scale (τ) of the shock and recovery of the stock price during the EE using the intrinsic mode function obtained from the empirical mode decomposition technique. The quality stocks with V-shape recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic have definite τ of shock and recovery, whereas the stressed stocks with L-shape recovery have no definite τ. The identification of τ of shock and recovery during an EE will help investors to differentiate between quality and stressed stocks. These studies will help investors to make appropriate investment decisions