Department of Economics and Finance

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Subject: search.filters.subject.Economic Growth

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    Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment
    (Elsevier, 2014-08) Bal, Debi Prasad
    This paper examines the effect of public debt on economic growth in India between 1980 and 2011. Using the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model, the paper traces a long-run equilibrium relationship between public debt and economic growth. The error correction model (ECM) results show that central government debt, total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and debt-services are affecting the economic growth in the short-run, and that the results are consistent with our a priori expectation. It is recommended that the government should follow the objective of inter-generational equity in fiscal management over the long term in order to stabilize debt-GDP ratio, particularly, after the global financial crisis.
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    Nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in BRIC economies: An empirical investigation
    (MPRA, 2016) Bal, Debi Prasad
    This paper considers the defense expenditure and economic growth nexus based on the cross-border problems and increasing geo-political presence for BRIC blocs over the period 1993-2014. Our approach is more methodological in terms of employing Panel cointegration and causality to highlight the fundamental relation between the defense expenditure and economic growth. Here we emphasize various economic considerations in terms of pre and post war, strategic and spatial phenomenon to capture the magnitude of gains from the increased defense spending in the region. We are using panel unit-root; panel cointegration and panel-Granger causality to highlight the fundamental relationship between the variables. We conclude by discussing the issues as well as quantifying the consequences of present geostrategic conditions associated with these economies.
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    The Effects of Capital Formation on Economic Growth in India: Evidence from ARDL-bound Testing Approach
    (Sage, 2016-10) Bal, Debi Prasad
    This article examines the impact of capital formation on economic growth in India covering the period from 1970 to 2012. This paper traces a long-run equilibrium relation between capital formation and economic growth and other control variables by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The error correction (ECM) model shows that the capital formation, trade openness, exchange rate and total factor productivity positively affect the economic growth and the inflation negatively affects the economic growth in the short run. It is recommended that government increases the level of capital formation in order to achieve a higher level of economic growth.
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    Is Public Debt a Burden for India?
    (Wiley, 2016-03) Bal, Debi Prasad
    In this paper, we investigated whether the government debt caused a burden for India over the period 1970–2013. We achieved this goal using Bohn's (1998) hypothesis in a structural VAR framework. This study did not find evidence to support Bohn's hypothesis in the context of India because no statistically significant relationship between public debt and gross primary deficit was found. Second, this study observed a positive response of interest payments due to the shock of public debt, which is not surprising. Third, a positive shock of public debt was statistically significant and negatively affected developmental expenditure. Similarly, interest payments negatively affected the gross primary deficit. We concluded that public debt in India was not a burden for the country.
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    Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?
    (Springer, 2017-05) Bal, Debi Prasad
    This paper investigates the impact of public debt on economic growth using key macroeconomic channels for the period 1970–2013 in the context of India. The analysis is undertaken in two different steps: first, it is examined whether public debt has any nonlinear impact on economic growth and second, determines the key channels through which public debt affects economic growth. The results derived from 2SLS model show that public debt positively affects economic growth in the short run, while it shows a negative impact in the long run. Further, by using Nonlinear ARDL approach, this paper supports the existence of a nonlinear impact of public debt on economic growth. The channels through which public debt significantly affects economic growth are households saving, public investment and total factor productivity growth. From policy perspective, we suggest that government should target the public investment and productivity channels for utilizing the public debt in India, and the government should opt for borrowings as long as it leads to capital formation of the country.
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    Is the demand for crude oil inelastic for India? Evidence from structural VAR analysis
    (Elsevier, 2018-07) Bal, Debi Prasad
    We examine the dynamics of crude oil demand, crude oil price, and economic growth over the period of 1997–2016 in case of India. We derive the results from DNS unit root test and it indicates that all variables are stationary in their first order difference. Further, we apply Narayan and Popp (2010) two structure break test and find two break points, one in January 2002 and another one in November 2011 in case of crude oil price. Finally, the Structural VAR analysis depicts that there exists a negative and significant relation between crude oil price dummy and crude oil demand over the period. Further, the price elasticity shows that the percentage changes of crude oil demand response less as compare to the rise in crude oil price. This clearly suggests that crude oil price is moderately inelastic. This overall implies that global crude oil price fluctuation has not brought down India's crude oil import to a greater extent. In order to erase the bulging oil import bill, alternative strategies of producing methanol blended oil, revival of sick oil well production, and adoption of phase wise clean energy system could curb the import dependence of crude oil.
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    Does Crude Oil Price Affect the Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in India? A New Insight Based on Structural VAR Framework
    (Sage, 2021-04) Bal, Debi Prasad
    Based on a structural vector autoregressive framework on the monthly data from April 1997 to July 2016, this study is an attempt to show the impact of crude oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth in India. The results showed that the crude oil price has a positive impact on the rate of inflation whereas an inverse relation exists between crude oil price and economic growth. Further, we segregated the crude oil price into two components, that is, positive and negative partial sum of oil price through the nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distribution lag framework. A similar kind of result is derived in the case of positive partial sum of oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth, while a significant negative relationship is found in the negative partial sum of crude oil price on economic growth. From the policy perceptive, we suggest that policymakers may focus on reducing the consumption of crude oil and using renewable energy for accelerating the economic growth. This would not only prevent the domestic economy from international oil price fluctuations and inflation but also assist in achieving sustainable environmental goal of reduced crude oil use.
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    Impact of sectoral decompositions of electricity consumption on economic growth in India: evidence from SVAR framework
    (Springer, 2022-03) Bal, Debi Prasad
    The study examines the effects of electricity consumption from different sectors such as agricultural, commercial, domestic, industrial (HV), industrial (LV-MV) and miscellaneous sectors on economic growth over the period of 1981–2019 in the case of India. We used SVAR framework and concluded that the consumption of electricity from agriculture sector has a negative impact on economic growth, whereas the industrial (HV and MV-LV) and commercial electricity consumption has positive impact on economic growth. Similarly, electricity consumption by the domestic sector has less positive effect on economic growth. Further, we computed the total factor productivity growth (TFP) by using the DEA method and showed the effects of sector-wise electricity consumption on TFP as the robustness of our analysis. We obtain similar kind of results. From the policy perceptive, the study suggests that the government must speed up the construction of a power grid to improve the availability of electricity for achieving higher rate of economic growth.
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    Labour Force and Employment Growth in India Evidence from the EUS (2011–12) and PLFS (I and II)
    (Economic Political Weekly, 2021-11) Padhi, Balakrushna
    Employment is one of the key building blocks of Indian development policy (Papola and Sahu 2012). Driving growth in the labour and workforce is a critical challenge for Indian policymakers and is a hotly contested issue in political and academic debates. Creating decent job opportunities outside of the agricultural sector has been one of the biggest challenges to confront policymakers in recent decades in their attempts to achieve faster and more inclusive growth. In this regard, India’s low employment growth, termed “jobless growth,” in a phase of high-income growth, has sparked intense debates in the Indian labour market since the turn of the 20th century (Mehrotra et al 2012; Kannan and Raveendran 2009; Srivastava 2016).
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    Does the Indian Economy Support Wagner’s Law? An Econometric Analysis
    (Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 2010) Arora, Rahul
    The present study endeavors to examine the validity of Wagner’s Law in India over the period 1950/51 to 2007/08. Six versions of Wagner’s hypothesis given by different economists have been estimated which support the existence of long-run relationship between economic growth and growth of public expenditure. Two structural breaks have also been given to test the impact of structural changes in Indian economy on the growth of public expenditure. It has been found that the first structural break given for mild-liberalization period causes insignificant changes in the growth elasticity of public expenditure. However, the observed change in the elasticity due to the second phase of intensive liberalization is statistically significant. Nevertheless, the Wagner’s law is still supported during the intensive phase of liberalization given a significant fall in the elasticity. Empirical evidences regarding the short-run dynamics refute the existence of any relationship between the economic growth and the size of the government expenditure