BITS Faculty Publications

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Ajitava Raychauduri, Prabir De and Suranjan Gupta (Eds.), World Trade and India: Multilateralism, Progress and Policy Response
(Sage, 2021-09) Arora, Rahul
Today, the entire world is witnessing a tough time because of the deadly coronavirus spread. It has adversely impacted almost all aspects of human lives and hit the world economy since last year. The pandemic has also hit the international trading system which is already facing many challenges. As per the latest report on trade trends by UNCTAD (2021), the last decade has witnessed declining dependence, calculated by the ratio of the value of world trade flows to the world output including goods and services, on international trade since the year 2009. This ratio was 30% in the year 2008, and it is expected that this ratio will settle at 25% by the end of the year 2020. The last decade has witnessed changes in many economic phenomena such as rising share of trade in intermediate goods and services, the emergence of technology as a major factor of production, and asymmetry in its intensity, which pose severe challenges to the countries involved in international trade indirectly or directly. Losing faith in the WTO by its member countries, the rising level of protection, unilateralism, and emerging regionalism are few such challenges. These challenges gave birth to many complexities that compelled trade economists to think from a different perspective and formulate trade policy in such a way that it satisfies the demand of all the stakeholders. Before devising any solution, understanding all these complexities and channels of their potential impact is very much necessary. This is where World Trade and India: Multilateralism, Progress and Policy Response, a book edited by Ajitava Raychaudhuri, Prabir De, and Suranjan Gupta, comes into play and provides the required knowledge. The book offers fussy insights on various international trade issues of the present-day world, challenges associated with those issues, and the steps taken at the country level. Focusing particularly on the Indian economy, the book covers almost all the aspects related to India’s progress in new trade issues and its policy responses and provides few potential solutions.
Assessment of the Proposed India-China Free Trade Agreement: A General Equilibrium Approach
(Emerald, 2015-02) Arora, Rahul
The present study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of the proposed India-China free trade agreement (FTA) in goods trade on both countries under a static general equilibrium framework.
Calculation of Ad Valorem Equivalents of Non-Tariff Barriers: A Case Study of 16 RCEP Countries
(Springer, 2017-12) Arora, Rahul
This chapter provides the calculation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of nontariff barriers, particularly those barriers that increase both the time to import and the time to export goods between two trading partners. The calculation considers the example of 16 member countries of the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. This chapter evaluates the impact of trade facilitation in RCEP countries on their bilateral trade flows and other macroeconomic variables. Using an econometric approach, sectorwide AVEs of the time to import and the time to export have been calculated through the estimation of an augmented version of the gravity model.
Developments in International Trade Theory and Gravity Modelling
(Springer, 2017-12) Arora, Rahul
This chapter discusses advances in international trade theory and gravity modeling with an explanation of the reasons behind gains from trade. The changing pattern of trade over time has also changed the explanation of the emergence of gains from trade, which provides room for new trade theories. Initial theories of trade, known as traditional trade theories, explain the pattern of trade in terms of comparative advantage. But with the passage of time, the emergence of trade in intermediates and services has provided new reasons for trade and hence has led to the advent of new trade theories. This chapter will explain the different reasons behind international trade.
Do Countries form Convergence Clubs in the World?
(IPE, 2011) Arora, Rahul
Does the Indian Economy Support Wagner’s Law? An Econometric Analysis
(Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 2010) Arora, Rahul
The present study endeavors to examine the validity of Wagner’s Law in India over the period 1950/51 to 2007/08. Six versions of Wagner’s hypothesis given by different economists have been estimated which support the existence of long-run relationship between economic growth and growth of public expenditure. Two structural breaks have also been given to test the impact of structural changes in Indian economy on the growth of public expenditure. It has been found that the first structural break given for mild-liberalization period causes insignificant changes in the growth elasticity of public expenditure. However, the observed change in the elasticity due to the second phase of intensive liberalization is statistically significant. Nevertheless, the Wagner’s law is still supported during the intensive phase of liberalization given a significant fall in the elasticity. Empirical evidences regarding the short-run dynamics refute the existence of any relationship between the economic growth and the size of the government expenditure
Domestic Energy Consumption and Country’s Income Growth: A Quantitative Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries Using Panel Causality, Panel VECM, Panel Cointegration and SURE
(Springer, 2016-01) Arora, Rahul
The present study is an attempt to test the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for developed and developing counties. For this purpose, panel data on various factors of GDP growth has been taken for 18 developing and 18 developed countries from 1980–2013. The paper uses the variant of Solow model to provide the economic justification behind the econometric estimation of regression model which includes energy consumption as one of the independent variables affecting GDP growth of a country, among others. The paper also runs a separate regression model for developed and developing countries to compare the effect of energy consumption on economic growth. To estimate the regression model, study uses various panel data estimation methodologies such as: panel data cointegration, panel causality, panel VECM, panel VAR and panel data ARDL and SURE to find out the short run and long-run relationship between the policy variables. The overall conclusion emerges from the analysis is that per capita energy consumption has a negative impact on growth of per capita GDP in developing countries but positive impact in case of developed countries. This may be due to the fact that in developed nations, the energy consumption expenditures may be more devoted to technological progress in alternative source of oil like shell gas or in expenditures related to renewable energy intensive technological products. The developing countries although trying to put efforts in increasing expenditures in alternative energy sources like non renewable, oil consumption still seem to not have many alternatives sources of energy. Therefore, reducing oil expenditures tend to promote growth among developing countries. The paper tests the direction of causality between energy consumption and GDP for set of developed and developing countries by working on the following hypotheses
Economic Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases and Challenges of Health Insurance Coverage: Insights from Primary Survey
(Routledge, 2023) Arora, Rahul
India’s health system ranks as one of the world’s most heavily dependent on out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE). According to WHO (2018), roughly 63 percent of health expenditure in India is out-of-pocket. As per the National Sample Survey-75th round of the health survey, approximately 80 percent of the population is without any health insurance coverage. India has witnessed a sharp increase in the share of NCDs in the total disease burden from 30 percent in 1990 to 56 percent in 2016, also percentage of death due to NCDs in India has increased from 37 percent in 1991 to 61 percent during the same period. The rising burden of disease has increased the total share of out-of-pocket expenditure on health, consequently leading to catastrophic health expenditure, impoverishment, and distress financing. The extent of poverty is deeper than the estimated national figure due to high OOPE and negligible health insurance coverage in the era of rising disease burden. Against this backdrop, this study examines the association between health insurance on healthcare utilization and the burden of OOPE among people with reported NCDs. The findings of the study are based on the primary data analysis collected through a web-based survey. Through descriptive and regression analyses, the study presents evidence on awareness, and decision-making process in the insurance uptake, therefore, providing a behavioral approach for policy design to expand insurance coverage.
The Economic Cost of Rising Non-communicable Diseases in India: A Systematic Literature Review of Methods and Estimates
(Springer, 2023-07) Arora, Rahul
India has one of the world’s highest proportions of out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) payments. The low share of public health expenditure coupled with the double burden of disease (communicable and non-communicable) has a direct financial impact on individual OOPE and an indirect impact in the form of decreasing life expectancy, reduced productivity, and hence a negative impact on economic growth. This systematic review aims to compare and assess the estimated economic cost of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in India and ascertain the methods used to derive these estimates.
Energy poverty and human development: Empirical evidence from rural Rajasthan, India
(Sage, 2023-02) Giri, Arun Kumar; Arora, Rahul
This study attempts to establish the linkage between human development and energy poverty for rural households and evaluate the impact of government schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, free electricity and unemployment allowance on human development. For the analysis purpose, primary data have been collected from rural areas of two main districts of the Shekhawati region of the state of Rajasthan in India. To pursue the objectives, two measures of energy poverty – energy deprivation and the multidimensional energy poverty index – and one measure of human development – the human development index – have been constructed. The primary survey of 1,000 households is conducted from January to March 2020. For establishing the empirical relationship, the study has used Tobit regression analysis. The findings confirm the hypothesis that the existence of energy poverty adversely affects the level of human development in the region. It also confirms the other side of the relationship, which states that increasing human development reduces energy poverty through various linkages. The study results reveal that the government scheme which directly contributes to the per capita income is also impacting positively human development through an increase in income. Hence, to improve the level of human development and to decline energy poverty, the study recommends policies to improve the overall level of income of households.
Establishing the relationship between population aging and health care expenditure in India
(Emerald, 2022-02) Giri, Arun Kumar; Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi; Arora, Rahul
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the role of population aging in determining the health care expenditure (HCE) in India over the period 1981 to 2018.
Evaluating strategies to persist for digital platform firms in a post-digitalization era: an empirical evidence from Indian platform firms
(Emerald, 2024-05) Arora, Rahul
The dynamic and evolving nature of the market calls for attention to digital platform firms' survival strategies, building agility for persistence in a continuously changing business environment. In India, the government’s adoption of the Digital Policy is one such change in the business environment for the firms that impact almost all sectors. Such policies cause a disruption wherein digital platform firms must be agile and create a strategic response that will endure any changes. The present study attempts to gain insight into the competitive strategies adopted by the digital platform firms of the consumer durables industry in India, which are implemented to facilitate their growth.
Examining the interstate variations and interlinkage between water poverty and multidimensional poverty in India: evidence from household-level data
(Emerald, 2022) Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi; Arora, Rahul
The purpose of the present study is to examine the inter-relationship between the multi-dimensional poverty and water poverty using household level data for Indian states. A modified water poverty index (MWPI) for both rural and urban households was created using the five components approach and various quantifiable proxies. Principal component analysis (PCA) has been used for the construction of MWPI. Multidimensionality of poverty (MPI) is measured using the Alkire and Foster methodology. Further, the study has utilized correlation and Tobit regression analysis to show the relationship between MWPI and MPI. The empirical findings suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between multidimensional poverty and water poverty, with the extent of relationship being greater in rural areas. The results show that in rural areas all the components of water poverty has significant impact on multidimensional poverty, whereas in urban areas except use component all others have significant impact on multidimensional poverty. Further, components of multidimensional poverty were also found to be significantly impacting water poverty.
Goods Trade Liberalization Under Canada-India FTA and Its Impact: Partial and General Equilibrium Analysis
(Springer, 2017-12) Arora, Rahul
This chapter uses the partial (SMART) and general equilibrium (GTAP) tools to assess and simulate the impact of complete trade liberalization of ‘All’ and ‘Specialized’ products’ between India and Canada under the proposed Canada-India free trade agreement (FTA).The simulation results obtained from both of the analyses (partial and general equilibrium analyses) indicate that India would invariably gain more (than Canada) in terms of welfare change and consumer surplus when ‘All’ or ‘Specialized’ products of Canada enters India in comparison with the scenario when Indian ‘Specialized’ and ‘All’ products enters Canada. This study recommends the reworking of benefits and costs associated with Canada-India FTA in the presence of WTO plus and extra provisions.
Groundwater quality, human health risks and major driving factors in arid and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan, India
(Elsevier, 2023-11) Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi; Arora, Rahul
Evaluating status, variability and identifying the factors influencing groundwater quality is essential to manage and conserve groundwater resources. The present study aims to examine groundwater quality for 15 water quality parameters from 84 stations in arid and semi-arid districts of Rajasthan, India, using annual data from 2000 to 2018. Statistical methods such as descriptive test statistics, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen’s slope estimation, and Principal component analysis (PCA) were used to analyze the hydrochemical parameters. While World Health Organisation (WHO) and Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) guidelines were used to assess the suitability of groundwater for domestic purposes, sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), electrical conductivity (EC), and United States Salinity (USSL) diagrams were used for irrigation suitability. Further Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to explore the effect of climatic (precipitation, temperature) and anthropogenic (net irrigated area (NIA), fertilizer usage, industrialization, and population) variables on groundwater quality. The empirical results reveal that in groundwater of the study area sodium (Na+) and potassium (K+) were the dominating cations, while chloride (Cl−) and bicarbonate (HCO3−) were the dominating anions. The groundwater was predominantly Na–Cl type. Further, most stations witnessed an increasing trend in calcium, magnesium, sodium, chloride, bicarbonate and sulphate and a decreasing trend in potassium, fluoride and nitrate. The SAR, EC, and USSL indicate that the groundwater in the region is suitable for irrigation if salinity control measures are implemented. Chloride, fluoride and sodium concentrations exceeded the prescribed guideline limits in most stations, jeopardizing the suitability of water for drinking and posing significant health hazards. The GAM analysis revealed that anthropogenic variables significantly impact the groundwater quality parameters compared to the climatic variables. Accordingly, it is suggested that anthropogenic parameters must be addressed while formulating groundwater resource management policies. Thus, policies should focus on the stringent enactment of regulations and guidelines controlling the excessive use of fertilizers, implementing proper disposal of municipal solid and liquid waste, and managing industrial pollutants.
Implications of adopting water policy and caste on Multidimensional poverty: Evidence from household-level data in India
(World Scientific, 2024) Mohapatra, Geetilaxmi; Arora, Rahul
This paper attempts to unravel the influence of caste on water poverty while examining the relationship between the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) and the modified water poverty index (MWPI). Additionally, considering the inevitable role of policies in combatting water woes, this paper analyses the impact of drinking water policies. The empirical results show that MWPI significantly impacts MPI, and caste significantly determines both MWPI and MPI. This study also found that drinking water policies significantly influence MWPI and indirectly impact MPI through MWPI.
Institutional imbalance moderating the linkage between GVC participation and economic growth: empirical evidence
(Emerald, 2023-10) Arora, Rahul
Participation in global value chains (GVCs) is increasingly related to the economic growth of any country. The conceivable beneficial impact of GVCs on economic growth differs across countries and could be modified with the countries' domestic institutional arrangements. However, ignoring the complementarity between the components of institutional quality led to ignorance of the institutional imbalance present in the country. Hence, the primary purpose of this study is to examine the role of institutional imbalance as a moderating variable between GVC participation and economic growth from 2000 to 2018.
Linkage between forest cover and trade in forest products: an empirical evidence from BRICS and EU nations
(Springer, 2023-09) Arora, Rahul
The present research aims at analyzing the determinants of trade in forest products across BRICS and EU nations by using forest cover as one of the determining factors. For this purpose, a gravity model has been utilized for the country panel of BRICS and EU from 1996 to 2020. Five product categories corresponding to the forest trade (at HS-2 level) have been considered for the analysis. Further, Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method has been used to estimate the gravity model. The study found that the forest cover of the trading nations from BRICS and EU has affected bilateral exports of primary wood products, wood pulp products, and related items significantly. The control variables included in the gravity model have resonated the results of existing literature. The study provides good policy insights on promoting trade in forest products by adopting appropriate forest conservation policies and other interventions that can help countries in increasing their respective forest covers.
Linking entrepreneurial ability with profitability: A study of registered women entrepreneurs from Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh
(The Society of Economics and Development, 2022-04) Arora, Rahul
Over time, with growing attention to women's entrepreneurship, their entrepreneurial ability is improving. The term entrepreneurial ability is used to highlight various abilities that a woman entrepreneur must have that is further linked to their success in business. The present study attempted to highlight various entrepreneurial abilities related to entrepreneurial psychology and behaviour of women entrepreneurs and assess their impact on the level of profit using structural equation modelling. For the empirical analysis, primary data were collected from Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh's registered women entrepreneurs. The study identified one psychological and three behavioural factors that significantly influence the level of profits through the impact on investment. Overall, the study found that levels of initial investment were positively and significantly impacting the profits. The level of investment is determined by factors such as achievers’ attitude and willingness to take the risk. The risk-free attitude of women entrepreneurs was negatively affecting their profit levels.
Macroeconomic Determinants of India’s Participation in Global Value Chains: An Empirical Evidence
(Sage, 2023-01) Arora, Rahul
Global value chains (GVCs) have significantly changed the world trade scenario. Many developed countries gained benefits through production fragmentation, and it has worked as hope for the developing world. India is also one of the participants but its share in global GVC space is very limited. The recent pandemic comes with a lot of opportunities for India to emerge as a new GVC hub in the Asia-Pacific region. This requires the study of factors determining the extent of India’s participation in GVCs. The present article is an attempt in this direction wherein various factors determining the forward and backward participation levels are identified. At a macro level, the study found the positive role of technology advancement, domestic capital and industrial capacity in promoting the level of participation in GVCs, while the role of net FDI inflows is found to be negative. This highlights the requirement for conducive policies to reap the maximum benefits associated with foreign capital. India is already observing the benefits and growing, but still, it has to cover a long path. The time has come to make an image of the brand India in the world and reap maximum benefits from the GVC participation.