BITS Faculty Publications

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Analysing the role of fintech and resource use in shaping environmental outcomes using load capacity factor in G20 countries
(Springer, 2025-07) Rao, N.V.M.; Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the dynamic interrelationships between financial technology (fintech), natural resource rents, economic growth, urbanization, and environmental sustainability, using the Load Capacity Factor (LCF) as a composite measure of ecological balance. Unlike prior studies that rely solely on demand-side indicators such as carbon emissions or ecological footprint, this research employs LCF to capture both environmental supply and demand dimensions. Utilizing annual data spanning from 2005 to 2022, we construct fintech index using variables, namely, automated teller machine, mobile cellular subscription, fixed broadband subscription, and internet usage, by employing Principal Component Analysis approach. For preliminary testing, current study considers cross-sectional dependency test, slope homogeneity tests, pedroni and westerlund tests for cointegration and pairwise dumitrescu hurlin panel granger causality tests, and common correlated effects mean group and driscoll-kraay estimation for robustness. For result findings, we utilized the panel Vector Autoregression (Panel-VAR) method to illustrate the dynamic relationships among these variables. Our findings from Panel VAR approach indicate that fintech shocks initially have a positive impact on natural resource rent and load capacity factor but this effect weakens over later horizon, suggesting the need for cautious policy design. Furthermore, economic growth responds positively to fintech shocks, while the influence of fintech on natural resource rent and urbanization appears to be negative. From a policy standpoint, our research suggests that promoting fintech could mitigate environmental degradation and contribute to sustainable development.
An assessment of the water quality index (WQI) of drinking water in the Eastern Himalayas of South Sikkim, India
(Elsevier, 2022-05) Bal, Debi Prasad
The current research was performed to evaluate the Water Quality Index (WQI) from the South Sikkim district, India, in the Eastern Himalayan region. Due to the rapid development of the tourism industry in the region, water scarcity has become one of the significant issues in some parts of the South Sikkim district. The lack of sufficient spring water to meet their drinking water needs has forced the local people to depend on alternate sources such as surface or rainwater. The main aim of the current research is to determine the acceptability of drinking water sources using the Water Quality Index (WQI) values. The Bureau of Indian Standard (BIS 2012) was used to evaluate the WQI and evaluate the quality of water for the water sources. Physicochemical parameters such as potential of hydrogen (pH), hardness, alkalinity, iron (Fe), fluoride (F−), chloride (Cl−), nitrate (NO3−), and turbidity were analysed using standard devices and found that water is safe for drinking purpose. The presence of all these parameters did not affect the water quality as all are below the permissible limit. The water delivered after conventional treatment to individual households by local administration is free from contaminants and suitable for drinking. Based on WQI values, surface waterfalls under the projected area of South Sikkim district into two categories: excellent water and good water (ranging from 0 to 50). However, water scarcity continues to remain a major challenge. The current study concludes with some suggestions for proper planning and managing drinking water resources in the South Sikkim district and hilly areas.
Characteristics of 2020 stock market crash: The COVID-19 induced extreme event
(AIP, 2021-04) Bal, Debi Prasad
A sudden fall of stock prices happens during a pandemic due to the panic sell-off by the investors. Such a sell-off may continue for more than a day, leading to a significant crash in the stock price or, more specifically, an extreme event (EE). In this paper, Hilbert–Huang transformation and a structural break analysis (SBA) have been applied to identify and characterize an EE in the stock market due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Hilbert spectrum shows a maximum energy concentration at the time of an EE, and hence, it is useful to identify such an event. The EE’s significant energy concentration is more than four times the standard deviation above the mean energy of the normal fluctuation of stock prices. A statistical significance test for the intrinsic mode functions is applied, and the test found that the signal is not noisy. The degree of nonstationarity test shows that the indices and stock prices are nonstationary. We identify the time of influence of the EE on the stock price by using SBA. Furthermore, we have identified the time scale (τ) of the shock and recovery of the stock price during the EE using the intrinsic mode function obtained from the empirical mode decomposition technique. The quality stocks with V-shape recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic have definite τ of shock and recovery, whereas the stressed stocks with L-shape recovery have no definite τ. The identification of τ of shock and recovery during an EE will help investors to differentiate between quality and stressed stocks. These studies will help investors to make appropriate investment decisions
Determination of Willingness to Pay for Entrance fee to National Park: An Empirical Investigation
(CESER Publications, 2014) Bal, Debi Prasad
This paper examine the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) of Bhitarakanika National Park (BNP), Odisha in India. Primary data has been collected from the visitors through survey method. We used multiple regression model to determine the WTP for entrance fee at BNP. The estimated results concluded that, income, age, day spent, marital status and travel cost have positively significant relationship with WTP whereas, gender is negatively affecting to WTP. From the policy perspective, we are suggesting to raise the entrance fee from Rs.20 to Rs. 40 which can raise the park revenue of BNP.
Developing a model for residential water demand in the Indian Himalayan Region of Ravangla, South Sikkim, India
(Elsevier, 2023-05) Bal, Debi Prasad
Climate change and increased demand for human needs have led to drinking water scarcity in the cities and towns located in the Indian Himalayan region. This paper aims to address the challenge of drinking water security by proposing a model of water demand among households in Ravangla town of South Sikkim, India. Our field survey results indicate that the water demand increases significantly due to the number of household members between the age of 18 and 60. Further, we find that the number of taps in the household is positively and significantly correlated with water demand. Number of water taps, storage capacity and the water consumption are positively related. However, we did not find any such strong association with the number of toilets in the household. The GIS maps of South Sikkim shows the areas with households that will soon face acute water stress and drinking water insecurity. In order to address the scarcity of water in these regions, policymakers may develop plans like rainwater harvesting to ameliorate the situation through a GIS based decision support system.
Digitalisation and economic growth in G-20 countries: a panel ardl analysis
(Faculty of Business and Economics at Alberto Hurtado University, 2024) Debata, Byomakesh; Bal, Debi Prasad
The 4th industrial revolution, or Industry 4.0 for short, has been ushered in by technological improvements over the past 30 years. As a result, the growing trend of digitalization has had a distinctly beneficial effect on economic growth, particularly in the banking and financial sector where it has increased productivity and efficiency due to reduced information asymmetry and by making financial services more widely available and reasonably priced for a wider range of people. Keeping in mind the notable benefits brought about by rising digital advancements and its impact on financial sector, this study aims to show the dynamic relationship between digitalization, financial inclusion and economic growth for G20 nations. We used the annual data for the time span of 2010 to 2020 for G20 countries and has used panel ARDL approach for the analysis. The panel ARDL technique reveals a positive correlation between digitalization and long-term economic growth. Conversely, the research findings indicate a negative relationship between them in the short run. Similarly, we spot an detrimental long-term association between financial inclusion, measured as the number of commercial bank branches, and economic growth. The study also comes to the conclusion that, in the short and long terms, respectively, population and gross-fixed capital formation have an impact on economic growth. Further, we have checked the robustness of our results by using internet usage as proxy for digitalization. The finding in this case proves the robustness of our study. Based on our study, we suggest that widespread digitalization and financial inclusion along with the introduction of FinTech might contribute to sustainable economic growth from a policy perspective.
Do fdi and public investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in India
(Project Muse, 2014) Bal, Debi Prasad
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between Private Domestic Investment (PDI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Public Investment (PU) in India for the period 1978-79 to 2009-10. Zivot and Andrews test has been used to know the structural break points in the data series. The empirical results derived from structural VAR model indicate that FDI has crowding in effects on PDI, whereas, PU neither Ôcrowd outÕ nor Ôcrowd inÕ PDI. Further, we found the evidence that shocks in PU and PDI have positively improved the FDI inflows in India
Do fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption affect total factor productivity growth? Evidence from cross-country data with policy insights
(Elsevier, 2019-04) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines whether types of energy consumption affects the total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using annual data of 1981–2013 for the panel sample of 36 countries, the results show that fossil fuel consumption declines the TFP growth, whereas, renewable energy consumption boosts the TFP growth. However, the results vary across different sub-panels. Further, the results from panel Granger causality support the feedback hypothesis in the long-run, whereas, weak evidence is found in the short-run. Since our findings supported feedback hypothesis, thus, policy should focus on reducing fossil fuel and using more renewable energy for achieving a ‘‘win-win’’ position of sustainable higher productivity growth with protective environmental quality in the long-run.
Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?
(Springer, 2017-05) Bal, Debi Prasad
This paper investigates the impact of public debt on economic growth using key macroeconomic channels for the period 1970–2013 in the context of India. The analysis is undertaken in two different steps: first, it is examined whether public debt has any nonlinear impact on economic growth and second, determines the key channels through which public debt affects economic growth. The results derived from 2SLS model show that public debt positively affects economic growth in the short run, while it shows a negative impact in the long run. Further, by using Nonlinear ARDL approach, this paper supports the existence of a nonlinear impact of public debt on economic growth. The channels through which public debt significantly affects economic growth are households saving, public investment and total factor productivity growth. From policy perspective, we suggest that government should target the public investment and productivity channels for utilizing the public debt in India, and the government should opt for borrowings as long as it leads to capital formation of the country.
Does Crude Oil Price Affect the Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in India? A New Insight Based on Structural VAR Framework
(Sage, 2021-04) Bal, Debi Prasad
Based on a structural vector autoregressive framework on the monthly data from April 1997 to July 2016, this study is an attempt to show the impact of crude oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth in India. The results showed that the crude oil price has a positive impact on the rate of inflation whereas an inverse relation exists between crude oil price and economic growth. Further, we segregated the crude oil price into two components, that is, positive and negative partial sum of oil price through the nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distribution lag framework. A similar kind of result is derived in the case of positive partial sum of oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth, while a significant negative relationship is found in the negative partial sum of crude oil price on economic growth. From the policy perceptive, we suggest that policymakers may focus on reducing the consumption of crude oil and using renewable energy for accelerating the economic growth. This would not only prevent the domestic economy from international oil price fluctuations and inflation but also assist in achieving sustainable environmental goal of reduced crude oil use.
Does Crude Oil Price Affect the Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in India? A New Insight Based on Structural VAR Framework
(Sage, 2021) Bal, Debi Prasad
Based on a structural vector autoregressive framework on the monthly data from April 1997 to July 2016, this study is an attempt to show the impact of crude oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth in India. The results showed that the crude oil price has a positive impact on the rate of inflation whereas an inverse relation exists between crude oil price and economic growth. Further, we segregated the crude oil price into two components, that is, positive and negative partial sum of oil price through the nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distribution lag framework. A similar kind of result is derived in the case of positive partial sum of oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth, while a significant negative relationship is found in the negative partial sum of crude oil price on economic growth. From the policy perceptive, we suggest that policymakers may focus on reducing the consumption of crude oil and using renewable energy for accelerating the economic growth. This would not only prevent the domestic economy from international oil price fluctuations and inflation but also assist in achieving sustainable environmental goal of reduced crude oil use.
Does energy poverty matter for decent employment among women in india? An empirical insight from the dissimilarity index
(2025-02) Kumar, Rahul; Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the impact of multidimensional energy poverty on women’s access to regular employment opportunities in India and its major states. The World Bank’s “human opportunity index” framework is applied to a sample of 31,611 employed women from the fifth round of the National Family and Health Survey. The findings indicate that energy poverty significantly affects women’s access to regular employment.
The dynamic relationship between nuclear energy, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from the richest countries in Europe and Asia
(Springer, 2024-01) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the dynamic relationship between the share of nuclear energy, growth in CO2 emissions, and GDP growth for the wealthiest countries of the two continents, Europe and Asia, from 1965 to 2021. The results from the SVAR model show a significant positive relationship between GDP growth and the growth of CO2 emissions in all countries. However, the values of the coefficients vary in the case of different countries of both continents. Further, it has been observed that the relationship between the growth of nuclear energy and the growth in CO2 emissions is more complex and varies from country to country. The results indicate that there is a strong negative relationship between nuclear energy and CO2 emissions in France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and India. At the same time, there is no significant relationship between Germany, Italy, and China. Finally, the result shows that there is an insignificant relationship between the growth in the share of nuclear energy and the GDP growth rate. From the policy perspective, this study suggests that alternative energy sources like nuclear energy can be leveraged to obtain a clean environment.
The Effects of Capital Formation on Economic Growth in India: Evidence from ARDL-bound Testing Approach
(Sage, 2016-10) Bal, Debi Prasad
This article examines the impact of capital formation on economic growth in India covering the period from 1970 to 2012. This paper traces a long-run equilibrium relation between capital formation and economic growth and other control variables by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The error correction (ECM) model shows that the capital formation, trade openness, exchange rate and total factor productivity positively affect the economic growth and the inflation negatively affects the economic growth in the short run. It is recommended that government increases the level of capital formation in order to achieve a higher level of economic growth.
The effects of public debt on capital formation in India: evidence from structural VAR analysis
(Inder Science, 2014-07) Bal, Debi Prasad
This paper provides the empirical evidence of the effects of public debt on interest rate, output and gross fixed capital formation in India during the period between the fourth quarter of 1998 and fourth quarter of 2012. Using the structural VAR model with variance decompositions and impulse response functions, the result shows that public debt has a positive impact on gross fixed capital formation as well as output. The findings of the study described in this paper broadly support the views of Keynesian economists.
ESG Volatility Prediction Using GARCH and LSTM Models
(Sciendo, 2024) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study aims to predict the ESG (environmental, social, and governance) return volatility based on ESG index data from 26 October 2017 and 31 March 2023 in the case of India. In this study, we utilized GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) models for forecasting the return of ESG volatility and to evaluate the model’s suitability for prediction. The study's findings demonstrate the GARCH effect inside the ESG return volatility data, indicating the occurrence of volatility in response to market fluctu-ations. This study provides insight concerning the suitability of models for volatility predictions. Moreover, based on the analysis of the return volatility of the ESG index, the GARCH model is more appropriate than the LSTM model
Estimation of price and income elasticity of water: a case study of Darjeeling town, West Bengal, India
(IAS, 2021-03) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the price and income elasticity of water of Darjeeling town in West Bengal, India. We collected the primary data between 2017 and 2018 through the survey method. Here simple random sampling has been used for interviewing 100 house- holds. We divided the households into groups of 25 each according to the mode of consumption of water, such as domestic pipeline, commercial pipeline, domestic water tanker, and commercial water tanker. This study concludes that the price for domestic pipe- line connection, commercial pipeline, domestic water tanker, and commercial water tanker is elastic by using the midpoint formulae of elasticity. More specifically, the consumption of commercial water tanker and commercial pipeline connection is relatively more elastic as compared to the domestic pipeline and domestic water tanker. Further, the result shows that the income elasticity of water demand is relatively high. Mainly, the income elasticity is less in the domestic pipeline and domestic water tanker compared to those under commercial pipeline and commercial water tanker. The paper's overall implication is that rising water per litre price has compelled the residents to compromise on the quality of drinking water. Therefore, it is recommended that the government follows the objective of inter-generational equity for water in the long run.
Estimation of price and income elasticity of water: a case study of Darjeeling town, West Bengal, India
(Current Science, 2021) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the price and income elasticity of water of Darjeeling town in West Bengal, India. We collected the primary data between 2017 and 2018 through the survey method. Here simple random sampling has been used for interviewing 100 households. We divided the households into groups of 25 each according to the mode of consumption of water, such as domestic pipeline, commercial pipeline, domestic water tanker and commercial water tanker. This study concludes that the price for domestic pipeline connection, commercial pipeline, domestic water tanker and commercial water tanker is elastic by using the midpoint formulae of elasticity. More specifically, the consumption of water from commercial tankers and households that have commercial pipeline connection have relatively high elasticity as compared to households depending on domestic pipeline connection and domestic water tanker. Further, the result shows that the income elasticity of water demand is relatively high. Mainly, the income elasticity is less in households under domestic pipeline and domestic water tanker compared to those under commercial pipeline and commercial water tanker. The overall implication of the study is that rising water per litre price has compelled the residents to compromise on the quality of drinking water. Therefore, it is recommended that the government follows the objective of inter-generational equity for water in the long run.
Exhibiting the Changes in Nutritional Status of Children in India: An Empirical Insight from the Human Opportunity Index
(Springer, 2024-03) Padhi, Balakrushna; Bal, Debi Prasad
Enhancing the nutritional status is essential for fostering human resource development and attaining sustainable development. The objective of this study is to analyse the temporal change in the opportunity to access adequate nutritional outcomes (Normal height for age, Normal weight for age, and Normal weight for height) for children under the age of five in India. The analysis of the study is based on three sets (2005–06, 2015–16 and 2019–21) of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data, at both the national and sub-national levels. It used the Human Opportunity Index (HOI), D-index, Shapley decomposition of D-index and time decomposition of HOI to examine temporal change in the opportunity to access adequate nutritional outcomes. At the national level, HOI increased in all three nutritional opportunities from 2005–06 to 2019–21, owing to the increase in coverage rate and decline in D-index. On the contrary, a sub-national analysis for the same period finds HOI to increase in all major states only in the case of Normal height for age and Normal weight for age. Whereas, states such as Punjab, West Bengal, Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat saw negative change in HOI for normal weight for height. Estimates from Shapley decomposition of D-index indicated that mother's education, wealth, social group, and access to toilet had major contribution to the unequal distribution of opportunities across all survey years. Further, the time decomposition of HOI revealed that the equalisation effect, which is the heart of the principle of equal opportunity, did not play a prominent role in expanding access to opportunities. Even a negative equalization effect is observed in Jammu & Kashmir, some states of the northeast, and even the rich states like Karnataka and Maharashtra. The study suggests a multi-pronged approach to address challenges, including increasing coverage and decreasing inequity in accessibility. Possible solutions include augmenting spending, minimizing leakages, and guaranteeing the delivery of services to the final recipients. A nuanced balance between "equality of outcomes" and "equality of opportunity" is needed.
Gold price and exchange rate in pre and during Covid-19 period in India: Modelling dependence using copulas
(Elsevier, 2022-12) Bal, Debi Prasad
This study examines the dynamic relationship between the gold price and the exchange rate in pre- and during Covid-19 pandemic in India. We consider the periods of about equal length for both the pre- and during Covid-19 by considering the data from January 1, 2019 till February 28, 2021. The descriptive analysis shows a significant increase in the dynamics of gold price and exchange rate after mid-March 2020. The results derived from the ARDL approach show a positive and significant relationship between the gold price and exchange rate both in the long and short run. We have selected the best fitted bivariate copula to study the joint distribution of the gold price and the exchange rate. Using the copula model, we examine the relationship between the gold price and exchange rate in a bivariate framework. We have studied the dependence between them including the tail dependencies using the fitted copula. Our findings reveal that the gold price and exchange rate are significantly correlated for the entire study period, and it also reveals that there is no tail dependence. However, the mutual association between the variables is not confirmed in the considered Covid-19 period.