BITS Faculty Publications
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Item Application of Spiking Neural Networks in Renewable Energy Forecasting(Springer, 2024-12) Pasari, SumantaConsidering the high consumption rates of the non-renewable energy sources as well as their adverse climatic impacts, renewable energy has become a widespread topic of discussion. Among the available renewable resources, solar and wind are the highest contributors. However, the high influence of atmospheric parameters and higher cost involved in energy production prevent the widespread use of renewable energy among common public. The location identification for optimum energy production is also a crucial step for setting up future energy plants. In this regard, here we propose a novel strategy to compare prediction results in terms of loss made by traditional convolutional neural network (CNN) with that of spiking neural network (SNN). Though the SNNs are popularly used for vision related tasks, here we evaluate their efficacy in analyzing time series data of solar irradiance and wind speed. In summary, we provide a comprehensive discussion on SNN and their significance on energy forecasting.Item Earthquake forecasting using artificial neural networks(ISPRS, 2018) Pasari, SumantaEarthquake is one of the most devastating natural calamities that takes thousands of lives and leaves millions more homeless and deprives them of the basic necessities. Earthquake forecasting can minimize the death count and economic loss encountered by the affected region to a great extent. This study presents an earthquake forecasting system by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two different techniques are used with the first focusing on the accuracy evaluation of multilayer perceptron using different inputs and different set of hyper-parameters. The limitation of earthquake data in the first experiment led us to explore another technique, known as nowcasting of earthquakes. The nowcasting technique determines the current progression of earthquake cycle of higher magnitude earthquakes by taking into account the number of smaller earthquake events in the same region. To implement the nowcasting method, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architecture is considered because such networks are one of the most recent and promising developments in the time-series analysis. Results of different experiments are discussed along with their consequences.Item Wind Energy Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks(Springer, 2020-07) Pasari, SumantaRenewable energy sources are one of the most vital alternatives to the conventional non-replenishable energy generating systems. Among several renewable power sources, the installed wind power capacity contributes to almost half of the total capacity. However, the variability and seasonality in wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and precipitation cause wind power generation to be highly volatile. In this regard, the present study aims to develop a wind speed prediction scheme using artificial neural network (ANN) techniques. Single step and multistep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented. The long short term memory (LSTM), rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function and Adam optimization algorithm are considered to carry out daily to monthly prediction using the RNN process. Results, based on the data from Charanka solar energy park in Gujarat, indicate that root means square (RMS) errors for univariate single layer, multivariate single layer and univariate two-layer models are 0.601, 0.782 and 1.120, respectively. Therefore, a univariate single layer RNN architecture is recommended for wind speed prediction. We envisage that a multilayer RNN model may improve the prediction accuracy over longer period.Item Earthquake Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks(IEEE, 2022) Pasari, SumantaReliable prediction of earthquakes has numerous societal and engineering benefits. In recent years, the exponentially rising volume of seismic data has led to the development of several automatic earthquake detection algorithms through machine learning approaches. In this study, we propose a fully functional and efficient earthquake detector cum forecaster based on deep neural networks of long-short-term memory (LSTM) units. The model captures inherent temporal characteristics of earthquake data. For illustration, we consider an earthquake catalog from the Himalaya and its neighboring regions. The proposed LSTM model shows satisfactory performance for small to medium-sized earthquakes. We also implement a baseline artificial neural network (ANN) model to perform a suitable comparison. It is observed that both ANN and LSTM models fail to produce desired result for large events.Item Earthquake Magnitude Prediction in Chile Using Neural Network(IEEE, 2022) Pasari, SumantaIn this study, we implement an earthquake magnitude prediction model using a neural network for a test region in Chile. For this, the epicenter of earthquake is located on a mesh with dimensions of 1°×1°. We adopt a zonation scheme originally proposed by Reyes and Cardenas [1]. The scheme uses increments in b−value and other input parameters to incorporate G-R linear relation and Bath’s law. The model enables the prediction of the maximum magnitude for a given cell within the next five days. Common seismological parameters are used for the performance evaluation of the model. Results show satisfactory performance of the proposed model in comparison to other existing models.