BITS Faculty Publications
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Item Developing strategic and staging optimization pathways for urban flood damage mitigation(Elsevier, 2025-10) Srinivas, Rallapalli; Singh, Ajit Pratap; Goonetilleke, AshanthaDespite significant advancements in flood risk assessment and damage monetization, research is lacking for simultaneously examining the impacts of the complexity of factors such as rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns, and urbanization, on flood damage assessment. This study adopts an innovative staging procedure that progressively and strategically optimizes flood damage mitigation measures while addressing the uncertainties associated with the implementation of flood mitigation measures over three different time horizons (2040, 2070, and 2100), with each subsequent stage refined based on the constraints and optimal results of the previous stage. Using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II), the study compares 27 optimized pathways for mitigating flood damages, balancing investment costs and Average Annual Damage (AAD) reduction. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves an AAD reduction of up to 2.89% in 2040, 4.03% in 2070, and 2.12% in 2100 under the most comprehensive mitigation pathways while balancing the costs. The study highlights cost-effective alternatives, such as combining dredging and permeable asphalt, achieving a 1.31% AAD reduction in 2040 with no additional costs. Compared to static single-stage mitigation policies, the proposed staging approach offers greater flexibility and efficiency in addressing dynamic urbanization and climate change scenarios. These results underline the trade-offs between cost and effectiveness, equipping policymakers with a robust decision-making framework to tailor flood mitigation strategies for diverse global contexts. Overall, this study significantly advances the strategic planning of urban flood damage mitigation, enabling adaptation to evolving environmental and socio-economic challenges.Item Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Semi-Arid Region of Chittorgarh, India(Springer, 2017-11-16) Singh, Ajit PratapClimate change is considered as a substantial anthropogenic global environment threat. This paper presents a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water resources of the Chittorgarh district, Rajasthan (India). Various vulnerability indicators have been considered as the assessment criteria which deal mainly with vulnerability aspects of water availability, climatic conditions, the current status of agriculture/irrigation area, sensitivity, water governance and coping capacity. These factors are finally integrated to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the selected region. An outranking method is applied to obtain a temporal ranking of the alternatives, i.e. year-wise performance of the region. To increase the reliability of results, verification is performed using two multi-criteria approaches, namely analytical hierarchy process and social choice methods by taking into consideration of above assessment criteria. A future trend of vulnerability aspects has also been derived using various prediction techniques.Item Economic evaluation of crop production in the Ganges region under climate change: A sustainable policy framework(Elsiever, 2021-01) Singh, Ajit PratapClimate change has been a challenge for the planners, who aim to make sustainable policies regarding staple food security and economic sustainability of smallholder farmers. There is a dire need for a conformed policy framework that quantizes monetary losses caused by the climate change on crops and suggests response policies under realistic climatic projections. The present study develops a climate change response policy framework for Ganges river basin by projecting climatic scenarios (temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration) under intergovernmental panel on climate change representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 for carbon dioxide emission. The study uses a Geographical Information System (GIS) based spatiotemporal-trend approach and evaluates economic loss using Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop simulation for the Ganges river basin. The policies have been derived by using fuzzy entropy decision making method. The novelty of the study is that it evaluates impact of climate change on crop yield under multiple scenarios expectations i.e. optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic. A case study of Ganges basin, India is taken and various indices (CSI- Climate Sustainability Index and CRS- Climate Risk Security) has been introduced that can be used by the planners to implement sustainable climatic response policies. Results show that winter crops (Rabi season) in the Ganges river basin are most vulnerable to future climate change risks as the basin is expected to be heated more in winter season as compared to summer. The expected reduction in seasonal rainfall is likely to nullify any carbon fertilization benefits on winter crop yields. Crop field in south-west Ganges basin (i.e. Chambal, Betwa, Ken and Son catchments) came out to be the most vulnerable. Based on the results, sustainable crop insurance policy has been suggested.