Monetary policy, stock market and inflation amid economic uncertainty: Fresh evidence from an emerging market (the Indian case)

Abstract

This study examines the transmission of monetary policy shocks on stock market returns, liquidity, expected inflation, and inflation under varying economic policy uncertainty (EPU) levels in the Indian context. Using a Smooth Transition VAR model, we find that contractionary monetary policy increases illiquidity and decreases returns during the high EPU regime but has minimal effects during the low EPU regime. Additionally, monetary policy effectively curtails expected inflation and inflation in a low EPU regime more than in a high EPU regime. The results emphasize monetary policy transmission via expectation channels over asset pricing channels.