Probabilistic Modeling and Outage Analysis for Smart Microgrid and Electric Vehicles Ecosystem

Abstract

In this work, we propose a simple yet novel prob-abilistic model for a renewable smart-grid and electric vehi-cle (EV) ecosystem supported by cellular vehicle-to-grid (C- V2G) infrastructure. Our stochastic model accounts for two key energy components modeled as random variables: the energy available from renewable sources and energy consumed by the EV. We define novel performance measures, desire probability, and threshold for the ratio of two energy components for this stochastic model. For it, we develop an insightful analysis that includes mathematical derivations for obtaining a single integral expression for the desired probability for a stable green grid- EV ecosystem operation. We present various numerical plots with varying model parameters and obtain useful insights to understand the model and suggest the optimum threshold for stable and safe operation. The model and analysis we develop are useful as the theoretical benchmark for other learning-based practical approaches.