Underlying dynamics of crime transmission with memory

Abstract

Various studies suggest different mathematical models of integer order differential equations predict crime. But these models do not inherit non-local property, which depicts behavior changes due to contact with criminals for a long period. To overcome this, a fractional-order mathematical model of crime transmission is proposed in this study. The proposed model considers the previous effects of the input while predicting the crime growth rate. A mathematical model of crime transmission inherited with memory property is proposed in this study to analyze crime congestion. Abstract compartmental parameters of fractional crime transmission equation, which illustrates various stages of criminal activity, were employed to analyze crime contagion in the society. The present study demonstrates the progression of the flow of population by classifying into three systems based on involvement in crime and imprisonment by considering the criminal history of an individual. Subsequently, the equilibria of the three-dimensional fractional crime transmission model are evaluated using phase-plane analysis. The Lyapunov function is employed to determine threshold conditions to achieve a crime-free society.