Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt within symmetric and asymmetric framework: Fresh insight from resource-rich economy

Abstract

Many economies abundant in natural resources often leverage the rents from these resources as collateral for borrowing during periods of economic boom, intending to repay debts during periods of windfall. However, this practice can cultivate irresponsible borrowing tendencies, potentially leading to debt trap scenarios when global resource prices decline. Thus, our study delves into the interaction between public debt (PD) and total natural resource rents (TNR), examining both aggregate and disaggregate forms, with a specific focus on India spanning from 1980-81 to 2021–22. Our aggregate analysis reveals that PD exhibits heightened responsiveness to negative shocks in TNR compared to positive shocks, indicating an asymmetric impact of TNR on PD within the Indian context. Additionally, disaggregate analysis uncovers that both positive and negative shocks in coal rents (CR), natural gas rents (NGR), and forest rents (FR) significantly and adversely affect PD. Furthermore, a positive shock in mineral rents (MR) demonstrates a negative and significant impact on PD, while a negative shock in MR yields a positive but insignificant impact on PD. Overall, barring oil rents (OR), other forms of resource rents such as CR, NGR, FR, and MR showcase asymmetric and negative effects on PD. These findings underscore the importance of prudent institutional behavior and sound economic policies in overseeing and managing debt sustainability in resource-rich economies.