A Model for First and Substitution Adoption of Successive Generations of a Product

Abstract

Modelling the new product sales growth and forecasting the future sales has been an important area of research in Marketing Science. Models have been proposed to map the consumer buying behaviour against explanatory variables like price, promotional effort, quality, time, etc. In comparison high technology products have received less attention. The proposed model uses the relationship between the repeat purchasers and the new purchasers in the overall diffusion of a new technology over multiple generations, by separately identifying the two types of adopters. It also includes the adopters skipping an intermediate generation while buying two different generation products. The proposed model imbibes the features of some well- known model and has been validated on historical data.