Synthetic Generation of Hourly Solar Irradiance Using a Multi-State Markov Model

Abstract

Solar irradiance data is a key factor in dimensioning photovoltaic (PV) panel size and energy storage for solar powered systems. Unfortunately, long term solar irradiance data is not available for many locations, thereby affecting the accuracy and effectiveness of dimensioning efforts. To address this issue, this paper presents a model for generating accurate, synthetic traces of arbitrary length for hourly solar irradiance. The proposed model is based on an approach that combines daily correlations in weather conditions affecting the solar irradiance with finer-grained, hourly transitions in solar irradiance levels. The proposed model has been evaluated by comparing various statistical parameters of hourly solar irradiance against real data.